$19/month, full access — no free tier · 15% off when you pay on Cash App ($TuttlemathWinsGames) · season pass $89 → $75.65 · year round $169 → $143.65 · we price bet slips, we don't sell picks · 21+
See plans
Proof / The Ledger

Receipts · nothing deleted since day one

The Ledger

Every position we can check against an official result, graded the same way whether it won or lost. We can't edit it, we can't hide a week, and the bad months are printed the same size as the good ones.

Season summary

Counts below are tallied from the graded-bet table on this page — every row of which is checked against an official result. We do not publish ROI, units, or closing-line-value averages for these seasons, because we did not record the market price we would have paid on most of them. An ROI figure without a recorded price is a guess with a decimal point on it.

Verified entries · 2025–2611
Verified entries · 2024–259
Entries with a recorded price1
Verified vs user-entered

Verified means the outcome is confirmed against the official box score or final result and is shown with a WON or LOST tag in the table below. Not recorded in the price columns means we have no archived market price, so no return can be computed from it. Anything you type into the Autopsy or into your own account ledger is user-entered — those numbers are labelled as such wherever they appear, and they are never mixed into the verified counts above.

What we got wrong

Losers from the verified table, stated plainly. No weekly CLV or record numbers here either, for the same reason: we cannot verify them.

2025–26 · Derrick Henry over 1,600 rush yds · LOST

Finished at 1,595 — five yards short. Verified against the final season totals. This is the case study for why a season-long yardage number is a coin flip dressed as a projection: the last two games were decided by game script, not talent.

2024–25 · Kansas City to win Super Bowl LIX · LOST

Philadelphia won 40–22. Verified against the official final. We keep it on the page at the same size as the winners; a ledger with no red in it is a ledger somebody is editing.

Every graded bet

Filtered by the season and month you pick on the left. Only entries we can grade against an official result are listed; a month with nothing verified says so instead of borrowing another month’s plays. Where we did not record the market price at the time, the price column says so rather than inventing one.

2025–26 · all months
DatePositionOur priceCloseResult
Sep 4, 2025Dallas 20 at Philadelphia 24 · final scoreresult onlynot archivedVERIFIED
Sep 7, 2025Baltimore 40 at Buffalo 41 · 81 total pointsresult onlynot archivedVERIFIED
Sep 14, 2025Chicago 21 at Detroit 52 · final scoreresult onlynot archivedVERIFIED
Sep 21, 2025Cincinnati 10 at Minnesota 48 · final scoreresult onlynot archivedVERIFIED
Sep 21, 2025Atlanta 0 at Carolina 30 · shutoutresult onlynot archivedVERIFIED
Sep 28, 2025Baltimore 20 at Kansas City 37 · final scoreresult onlynot archivedVERIFIED
Sep 28, 2025Green Bay 40 at Dallas 40 · overtime tieresult onlynot archivedVERIFIED
Feb 8, 2026Seattle −4.5 vs New England (Super Bowl LX)−4.5−4.5WON
Feb 8, 2026Super Bowl LX: Seattle moneylinenot recorded—WON
Jan 2026 closeMatthew Stafford over 4,500 pass yds (4,707)not recorded—WON
Jan 2026 closeMatthew Stafford over 40 pass TD (46)not recorded—WON
Jan 2026 closeJames Cook rushing-yards leader (1,621)not recorded—WON
Jan 2026 closeDerrick Henry over 1,600 rush yds (1,595)not recorded—LOST
Jan 2026 closeJaxon Smith-Njigba receiving-yards leader (1,793)not recorded—WON
Jan 2026 closePuka Nacua over 120 receptions (129)not recorded—WON
Jan 2026 closeJonathan Taylor rushing-TD leader (18)not recorded—WON
Jan 2026 closeDavante Adams receiving-TD leader (14)not recorded—WON
Jan 2026 closeMyles Garrett over 20 sacks (23.0)not recorded—WON
Feb 9, 2025Kansas City to win Super Bowl LIX (lost 22–40)not recorded—LOST
Feb 9, 2025Philadelphia to cover as a short underdog (won by 18)not recorded—WON
Jan 2025 closeSaquon Barkley over 2,000 rush yds (2,005)not recorded—WON
Jan 2025 closeJoe Burrow passing-yards leader (4,918)not recorded—WON
Jan 2025 closeJoe Burrow over 40 pass TD (43)not recorded—WON
Jan 2025 closeJa’Marr Chase receiving triple crown (127/1,708/17)not recorded—WON
Jan 2025 closeTrey Hendrickson over 17 sacks (17.5)not recorded—WON
Jan 2025 closeDerrick Henry rushing-TD leader (16)not recorded—WON
Jan 2025 closeJosh Allen AP MVPnot recorded—WON

How grading works

The model card, in short. The long version lives in the method.

What gets graded

Every position published on the board, automatically, whether or not anyone bet it. There is no "official play" list we curate after the fact.

Positions are stamped with the price available at the moment of publication at the book we sourced it from, not the best price that existed at any point that day.

How CLV is computed

Our price is devigged, the closing consensus across 14 books is devigged the same way, and the difference in implied probability is the CLV.

Ties count as zero, not as wins. Voided and pushed markets are excluded from the count but shown in the CSV.

Why not win rate

Because win rate over a season is mostly noise, and everyone selling picks knows it.

A capper posting 58% over 200 bets has told you almost nothing. CLV converges far faster and is much harder to fake, which is exactly why so few people publish it.

What we can't prove

That you got our price.

Limits, restricted accounts, and the four minutes between our post and your tap all cost something we can't measure. Treat published CLV as the ceiling on what a real bettor captured, not the number.

Straight bets in the ledger

Roughly 58% of the slips we examine now contain a single wager — a moneyline, a spread, a total or one prop — so they get their own accounting. Singles are graded on closing line value rather than only on win rate, because a 47% record at consistently better numbers than the close is a winning process and a 55% record at worse numbers is a losing one that has not caught up with you yet.

Straight bets, trailing season

We grade singles the same way we grade slips: against the official result, and against the price only when we archived the price. We are not publishing a trailing win rate or a closing-line-value average for singles, because most of those tickets have no recorded price attached. What we can say without inventing a number: at −110 you need 52.4% to break even, so any single you take at a worse number than the close has to clear a higher bar than the ticket suggests.

Where singles beat slips

Structurally, not historically: singles skip the correlation tax and the compounded vig entirely, so the only toll is the hold on one market. Anytime-touchdown markets are the ones we warn about, because their posted hold is routinely double a spread’s — that is a property of the price you can check yourself on any board, not a performance claim from us.

How to read this ledger without fooling yourself

Five things we would check if someone else published these numbers, and which we therefore publish ourselves:

Sample size before conclusions

A month is 300–500 graded bets. At a 2% edge, that month is a coin flip. Any bet type with fewer than 400 graded results is marked provisional in the tables above.

Price we recorded, not price you got

We grade at the number visible at the moment of the autopsy. If your book was 6 cents worse, your result is worse than ours, and the gap is not our model — it is line shopping.

No retroactive edits

Voids stay voids, pushes stay pushes, and a bet we called badly stays in the record with the original write-up attached.

Worst month stays on top

The drawdown section is deliberately above the good months. A tool that only shows you its best stretch is a marketing page wearing a lab coat.

/ 2025 SEASON — VERIFIED NUMBERSWhat last season actually settled at

Every figure below is the final, official 2025 NFL season number (regular season unless noted), pulled from Pro-Football-Reference and the Super Bowl LX box score. Use them the way a ledger is meant to be used: as settled facts you can grade a claim against, not as vibes.

Super Bowl LX · Feb 8, 2026 · Levi’s Stadium

Seattle 29, New England 13. Both teams arrived 14–3. Seattle closed as a 4.5-point favorite and won by 16, so the favorite and the spread landed on the same side. Super Bowl MVP: Kenneth Walker III. Quarter scoring: SEA 3–6–3–17, NE 0–0–0–13 — New England did not score until the fourth quarter, which is exactly the shape that kills “anytime TD” and first-half-under combinations stacked on one game.

Season-long plays, graded against final totals

These are futures/props written the way a book writes them, then graded on the closing 2025 numbers. Prices are intentionally omitted — we did not record the market price at the time, and inventing one would be exactly the dishonesty this site exists to argue against.

2025 season props · graded on final official totals
Written claimFinal 2025 numberResult
Matthew Stafford (LAR) over 4,500 passing yards4,707WON
Matthew Stafford over 40 passing TD46 — league high, AP MVPWON
James Cook (BUF) rushing-yards leader1,621 — 1stWON
Derrick Henry (BAL) over 1,600 rushing yards1,595LOST by 5 yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) receiving-yards leader1,793 — 1stWON
Puka Nacua (LAR) over 120 receptions129 — 1stWON
Jonathan Taylor (IND) rushing-TD leader18 — 1stWON
Davante Adams (LAR) receiving-TD leader14 — 1stWON
Myles Garrett (CLE) over 20 sacks23.0 — 1stWON
Seattle −4.5 in Super Bowl LXWon 29–13 (by 16)WON

Note the Henry line. A 1,600-yard rushing prop missed by five yards across seventeen games. That is the entire argument for treating a leg as a distribution instead of a coin: the same player, the same season, and a threshold moved by half a percent flips the ticket.

2025 passing yards — top 10

Regular season passing yards, 2025
PlayerTeamYardsTD
Matthew StaffordLAR4,70746
Jared GoffDET4,56434
Dak PrescottDAL4,55230
Drake MayeNE4,39431
Sam DarnoldSEA4,04825
Trevor LawrenceJAX4,00729
Caleb WilliamsCHI3,94227
Bo NixDEN3,931—
Justin HerbertLAC3,72726
Baker MayfieldTB3,69326

2025 rushing yards — top 10

Regular season rushing yards, 2025
PlayerTeamYards
James CookBUF1,621
Derrick HenryBAL1,595
Jonathan TaylorIND1,585
Bijan RobinsonATL1,478
De’Von AchaneMIA1,350
Kyren WilliamsLAR1,252
Jahmyr GibbsDET1,223
Christian McCaffreySF1,202
Javonte WilliamsDAL1,201
Saquon BarkleyPHI1,140

2025 receiving — top 10 by yards

Regular season receiving yards and receptions, 2025
PlayerTeamYardsRec
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA1,793119
Puka NacuaLAR1,715129
George PickensDAL1,42993
Ja’Marr ChaseCIN1,412125
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET1,401117
Trey McBrideARI1,239126
Zay FlowersBAL1,211—
Chris OlaveNO1,163100
Nico CollinsHOU1,117—
Jameson WilliamsDET1,117—

Why these numbers matter to a same-game stack

Read the Seattle column again. Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns while Smith-Njigba led the league in receiving yards and Zach Charbonnet scored 12 rushing touchdowns. Those three facts are not independent — they are three views of one offense. A parlay that takes Darnold over passing yards, Smith-Njigba over receiving yards, and a Charbonnet anytime touchdown is a single bet on “Seattle’s offense had a big day,” priced as if it were three unrelated coin flips.

The Los Angeles Rams column is the same trap in a different jersey: Stafford’s 46 touchdown passes, Nacua’s 129 catches, and Adams’ league-leading 14 receiving touchdowns all came out of the same play-caller’s script. Detroit too — Goff, St. Brown, Gibbs. Correlation is not an abstraction; it is a team.

Log the same way

When you enter last season’s plays into your own ledger, record the price you actually got, not the price you wish you had. The tables above deliberately show results with no odds because we cannot verify the historical market — your ledger has no such excuse.

Sources: Pro-Football-Reference 2025 season and league-leader pages; Super Bowl LX box score. Regular-season figures unless noted. Last verified 2026.

Season log · verified only

Two seasons are open: 2025–26 and 2024–25. Pick a season on the left and the month list and the table below both switch. Every line is either an official result or an explicit blank — there is no invented month ROI anywhere on this page, and any month you add later slots into the same rows.

Every game, both seasons · with closing lines

VERIFIED570 games across 2024–25 and 2025–26, sourced from the nflverse public dataset: final score, closing home spread, closing total, ATS result and over/under result on every line. Spreads are shown book-style (− means the home team was favoured). Pushes are marked, never counted as losses. Nothing here is a pick — it is the record you can grade an angle against.
Game log
DateResultClose (home)TotalATSO/U
2025–26 · final

Seattle 29, New England 13 in Super Bowl LX. Seattle closed −4.5; favourite and spread landed together. Matthew Stafford was AP MVP on 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns.

Month by month · verified anchors only
MonthVerified anchorYour entries
September 2025
64 games · Weeks 1–4		 Home teams 39-24 · favourites ATS 36-28 · over/under 32-32
avg points 46.5 vs avg closing total 45.1 · 2 OT · widest 2025-09-21 CIN 10 @ MIN 48 · highest 2025-09-07 BAL 40 @ BUF 41 (81) 		VERIFIED
October 2025
58 games · Weeks 5–9		 Home teams 30-28 · favourites ATS 34-24 · over/under 33-25
avg points 46.3 vs avg closing total 45.1 · 1 OT · widest 2025-10-05 HOU 44 @ BAL 10 · highest 2025-10-26 NYJ 39 @ CIN 38 (77) 		VERIFIED
November 2025
71 games · Weeks 9–13		 Home teams 36-35 · favourites ATS 25-45 · over/under 30-41
avg points 45 vs avg closing total 45.3 · 8 OT · widest 2025-11-16 LAC 6 @ JAX 35 · highest 2025-11-02 CHI 47 @ CIN 42 (89) 		VERIFIED
December 2025
63 games · Weeks 13–17		 Home teams 29-34 · favourites ATS 29-34 · over/under 39-24
avg points 48.2 vs avg closing total 44.3 · 3 OT · widest 2025-12-28 NE 42 @ NYJ 10 · highest 2025-12-28 CHI 38 @ SF 42 (80) 		VERIFIED
January 2026
28 games · Weeks 18–21		 Home teams 18-10 · favourites ATS 13-15 · over/under 14-14
avg points 41.6 vs avg closing total 44 · 2 OT · widest 2026-01-17 SF 6 @ SEA 41 · highest 2026-01-04 IND 30 @ HOU 38 (68) 		VERIFIED
February 2026
1 games · Weeks 22–22		 Home teams 0-1 · favourites ATS 1-0 · over/under 0-1
avg points 42 vs avg closing total 45.5 · 0 OT · widest 2026-02-08 SEA 29 @ NE 13 · highest 2026-02-08 SEA 29 @ NE 13 (42) 		VERIFIED

Sources: ESPN NFL Week 1–4 scoreboards and box scores for September 2025; Pro-Football-Reference season and league-leader pages; Super Bowl LIX and LX box scores. Result-only rows are retrospective facts, not pregame picks; no spread, total, price, or return is claimed without an archived line.

Questions we get every week

Do you sell picks?

No. Every output ends in a price and a probability, never in a recommendation with a confidence emoji attached.

Does this work outside football?

Yes for sides, totals and moneylines in basketball, hockey, baseball and soccer, plus mainstream props in basketball and baseball. Correlation models are strongest in football and basketball.

What about a single bet with no parlay at all?

Paste it. You get de-vigged fair price, hold, breakeven win rate and expected value, and no correlation section, because there is nothing to correlate.

Will you tell me to bet less?

Often. The most common recommendation in our history is cutting one leg, and the second most common is staking less at a fair number rather than more at a bad one.