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Correlation-adjusted parlay autopsy
Standard calculators multiply every leg as if the outcomes were strangers. Assign the market and game below to expose same-game dependence.
LegPriceMarketGame ID
Under the light
CALCULATOR
17.07%
17.07%
ADJUSTED
19.05%
19.05%
1.98 percentage points better than multiplication
Naive price
+486
Fair price
+425
Book price
+600
Estimated EV
+33.4%
ESTIMATED The uploaded coefficients are starter estimates, not verified historical measurements. Do not treat this output as a factual edge.
Strongest modeled link: Bills -6.5 ↔ Bills / Dolphins under at ρ 0.22.
Model output, not advice. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER.