NFL & CFB · counting down until the first CFB games that count · Aug 29
Paste the slip. We put it under the light and tell you which leg is lying to you, what the vig actually costs, and which two of your legs are secretly the same bet.
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The autopsy
Every book will happily take a 4-leg same-game parlay off you. None of them will show you the correlation math they used to price it. This does.
The book's price implies your parlay hits 4.40% of the time. We make it 4.31% once correlation is accounted for. You're not getting robbed — you're just paying about two cents on the dollar for a leg you don't need.
| Leg | Price | Book says | We say | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson60+ rush yards | -115 | 53.5% | 58.5% | +5.0 | KEEP |
| Drake London5+ receptions · the problem | -130 | 56.5% | 50.5% | −6.0 | KILL |
| ATL / CAROver 44.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 54.5% | +2.1 | KEEP |
| Kyle PittsAnytime TD | +260 | 27.8% | 23.5% | −4.3 | TOLERATE |
Same-game legs move together. Two of yours need the exact same thing to happen.
Translation: legs 2 and 3 are both bets on Atlanta throwing it a lot. You bought that idea twice and paid vig twice.
Same $20. Smaller number. Better bet.
Yes, the payout drops. That's the whole point. The version that pays less is the version that's actually worth playing.
Built for the group chat, not the newsletter
Nobody forwards a 1,500-word writeup. They forward the card that makes them look like the smartest person in the thread.
No signup wall between a bettor and their answer. The second you make someone create an account at 11:52am on a Sunday, you've lost them and the screenshot never happens.
One clip per slate: the three worst-priced props people are hammering, and why. The long article exists for Google. The video exists for humans.
No cigar, no LOCK OF THE CENTURY, no fake 68% record. This audience has already been lied to by six capper accounts and they can smell the seventh.
Receipts
Graded automatically against closing line value, not against a number we typed in ourselves. Nothing gets deleted. The archive goes back to day one and includes the week we got wrecked.
Open the full ledger → · How we price a slip → · Same bet twice →
Our receiving projections didn't adjust fast enough to three mid-season coordinator changes, so we were on the wrong side of target share for about five weeks. We fixed the update window in December. We're leaving the month on the page because a record that never has a red month in it is a record somebody is editing.
Pricing
No free tier, no trial-ware, no upsell maze. Every autopsy, the full prop board and your ledger are included — and if you bet seasonally, the season pass and annual rates cost less per month. Pay direct through Cash App and take 15% off any plan.
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