NFL & CFB · counting down until the first CFB games that count · Aug 29
Your parlay looks
great in the dark.
Paste the slip. We put it under the light and tell you which leg is lying to you, what the vig actually costs, and which two of your legs are secretly the same bet.
FREE · NO ACCOUNT · NO EMAIL · WE DON'T SELL YOU A PICK AT THE END
↖ move the light over the slip
Send it to the group chat
Drop a link. The card does the arguing.
Every page here previews with the receipt under the light, so a link in a group chat, a text or a post already says what the site is: we price bet slips, we don't sell picks.
$19/month. No picks for sale. 21+.
The autopsy
We don't tell you who wins. We tell you what you're paying.
Every book will happily take a 4-leg same-game parlay off you. None of them will show you the correlation math they used to price it. This does.
This slip is a small loser, and one leg is the whole reason.
The book's price implies your parlay hits 4.40% of the time. We make it 4.31% once correlation is accounted for. You're not getting robbed — you're just paying about two cents on the dollar for a leg you don't need.
| Leg | Price | Book says | We say | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson60+ rush yards | -115 | 53.5% | 58.5% | +5.0 | KEEP |
| Drake London5+ receptions · the problem | -130 | 56.5% | 50.5% | −6.0 | KILL |
| ATL / CAROver 44.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 54.5% | +2.1 | KEEP |
| Kyle PittsAnytime TD | +260 | 27.8% | 23.5% | −4.3 | TOLERATE |
You are less diversified than you think
Same-game legs move together. Two of yours need the exact same thing to happen.
Translation: legs 2 and 3 are both bets on Atlanta throwing it a lot. You bought that idea twice and paid vig twice.
Cut one leg. Here's the trade.
Same $20. Smaller number. Better bet.
Yes, the payout drops. That's the whole point. The version that pays less is the version that's actually worth playing.
Built for the group chat, not the newsletter
Every autopsy ends in one image.
Nobody forwards a 1,500-word writeup. They forward the card that makes them look like the smartest person in the thread.
Free, ungated, instant
No signup wall between a bettor and their answer. The second you make someone create an account at 11:52am on a Sunday, you've lost them and the screenshot never happens.
60 seconds, vertical
One clip per slate: the three worst-priced props people are hammering, and why. The long article exists for Google. The video exists for humans.
Numerate, dry, not a hype man
No cigar, no LOCK OF THE CENTURY, no fake 68% record. This audience has already been lied to by six capper accounts and they can smell the seventh.
Receipts
We publish the bad months bigger than the good ones.
Graded automatically against closing line value, not against a number we typed in ourselves. Nothing gets deleted. The archive goes back to day one and includes the week we got wrecked.
November was bad and here's why
Open the full ledger → · How we price a slip → · Same bet twice →
Our receiving projections didn't adjust fast enough to three mid-season coordinator changes, so we were on the wrong side of target share for about five weeks. We fixed the update window in December. We're leaving the month on the page because a record that never has a red month in it is a record somebody is editing.
Not just parlays
One bet, one number,
same light.
Paste a moneyline, a spread, a total or one prop and you get the same autopsy minus the correlation section: the de-vigged fair price, what the book is holding, the win rate you need to break even, and what the bet is worth per dollar. Most of what we find is here, in the boring bets nobody screenshots.
Moneylines
−145 implies 59.2%. De-vigged, the market says 56.8%. You are paying 1.4 points for the privilege — and on a two-way market you can usually find most of it back at another book.
Spreads & totals
Half points are not linear. At 3 and 7 in football they are worth multiples of what they cost anywhere else, so we price them off the actual margin distribution instead of a flat rule.
Props & alt lines
Median hold on a receiving-yards prop is 7–9%; anytime touchdowns clear 12%. We show the hold on a single leg because knowing the toll is the whole point.
Super Bowl LX: Seattle 29, New England 13 (SEA closed −4.5, won by 16). Stafford 4,707 yards / 46 TD and AP MVP. James Cook 1,621 rushing yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1,793 receiving yards. Myles Garrett 23.0 sacks. Full graded plays live on the ledger.
Pricing
One price. $19 a month. 15% off with Cash App.
No free tier, no trial-ware, no upsell maze. Every autopsy, the full prop board and your ledger are included — and if you bet seasonally, the season pass and annual rates cost less per month. Pay direct through Cash App and take 15% off any plan.
Monthly
$16.15 / month via Cash App — 15% off
- Unlimited slip autopsies
- Per-leg fair pricing and vig
- Same-game correlation map
- Full prop board, 7:00am drop
- Share card export
- Cancel in one click, no phone call
Season Pass
$95 billed monthly
Save 22% · 5 months$75.65 via Cash App — 15% off
- Everything in Monthly, plus:
- Line-move alerts on saved players
- Weekly CLV report on your own bets
- CSV export of every graded bet
- Price locked for the whole season
Year Round
$228 billed monthly
Save 26%$143.65 via Cash App — 15% off
- Everything in Season Pass, plus:
- Every league, every calendar month
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- Early access to new boards
Pay direct · 15% off
Send it on Cash App, save 15%.
Pay any plan straight to $TuttlemathWinsGames and the price drops 15%. Put the email you signed up with in the payment note and the pass is switched on manually, usually inside an hour.
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