Team total over + Anytime touchdown
More team touchdowns raise both the team score and a scorer's chance to get home.
The relationship depends on touchdown share: concentrated red-zone usage creates a stronger link.
Questions
Are Team total over and Anytime touchdown correlated?
More team touchdowns raise both the team score and a scorer's chance to get home. Our working same-game coefficient is about 0.34 (a seed estimate, not yet measured).
Why can't I just multiply the two prices?
Multiplying assumes independence. With a correlation of about 0.34, the true joint probability differs from the naive product, which is why the Autopsy simulates the pair 20,000 times instead.
Does the correlation hold across different games?
No. This relationship is driven by shared game state, so across separate games we treat the legs as independent.
Price this pair in the Autopsy →
https://blacklightparlays.app/correlation/team-total-over-and-anytime-touchdown · coefficient is an estimate, not a measured result