Receiver yards over + QB pass yards over
Every receiver yard is also a passing yard for his quarterback.
This direct statistical overlap makes the pair one of the clearest positive same-game relationships.
Questions
Are Receiver yards over and QB pass yards over correlated?
Every receiver yard is also a passing yard for his quarterback. Our working same-game coefficient is about 0.48 (a seed estimate, not yet measured).
Why can't I just multiply the two prices?
Multiplying assumes independence. With a correlation of about 0.48, the true joint probability differs from the naive product, which is why the Autopsy simulates the pair 20,000 times instead.
Does the correlation hold across different games?
No. This relationship is driven by shared game state, so across separate games we treat the legs as independent.
Price this pair in the Autopsy →
https://blacklightparlays.app/correlation/receiver-yards-and-qb-yards · coefficient is an estimate, not a measured result