RB rush yards over + Favorite spread
Winning game script creates late carries for a favored running back.
A favorite playing from ahead can feed its back while protecting the margin and draining clock.
Questions
Are RB rush yards over and Favorite spread correlated?
Winning game script creates late carries for a favored running back. Our working same-game coefficient is about 0.29 (a seed estimate, not yet measured).
Why can't I just multiply the two prices?
Multiplying assumes independence. With a correlation of about 0.29, the true joint probability differs from the naive product, which is why the Autopsy simulates the pair 20,000 times instead.
Does the correlation hold across different games?
No. This relationship is driven by shared game state, so across separate games we treat the legs as independent.
Price this pair in the Autopsy →
https://blacklightparlays.app/correlation/rb-rush-yards-and-favorite-spread · coefficient is an estimate, not a measured result