QB pass yards over + Game over
Passing volume and total scoring often rise from the same fast, competitive game state.
An over-friendly game usually creates more dropbacks, completions and explosive-play opportunities.
The link is not universal: defensive scores can lift a total without helping pass yards.
Questions
Are QB pass yards over and Game over correlated?
Passing volume and total scoring often rise from the same fast, competitive game state. Our working same-game coefficient is about 0.41 (a seed estimate, not yet measured).
Why can't I just multiply the two prices?
Multiplying assumes independence. With a correlation of about 0.41, the true joint probability differs from the naive product, which is why the Autopsy simulates the pair 20,000 times instead.
Does the correlation hold across different games?
No. This relationship is driven by shared game state, so across separate games we treat the legs as independent.
Price this pair in the Autopsy →
https://blacklightparlays.app/correlation/qb-pass-yards-and-over · coefficient is an estimate, not a measured result