Favorite spread + Under
A lead-protecting favorite can shorten the game, linking the cover with fewer total points.
A favorite that gets ahead can exchange aggression for clock. Fewer possessions help the under while a controlled margin helps the favorite cover.
This relationship can break in a shootout, and its strength changes with the spread and game environment.
Questions
Are Favorite spread and Under correlated?
A lead-protecting favorite can shorten the game, linking the cover with fewer total points. Our working same-game coefficient is about 0.22 (a seed estimate, not yet measured).
Why can't I just multiply the two prices?
Multiplying assumes independence. With a correlation of about 0.22, the true joint probability differs from the naive product, which is why the Autopsy simulates the pair 20,000 times instead.
Does the correlation hold across different games?
No. This relationship is driven by shared game state, so across separate games we treat the legs as independent.
Price this pair in the Autopsy →
https://blacklightparlays.app/correlation/favorite-spread-and-under · coefficient is an estimate, not a measured result