Favorite spread + Over
A dominant favorite can do enough scoring to carry both the cover and the over.
This pairing is strongest when the favorite has a high team total and the opponent can contribute.
Questions
Are Favorite spread and Over correlated?
A dominant favorite can do enough scoring to carry both the cover and the over. Our working same-game coefficient is about 0.13 (a seed estimate, not yet measured).
Why can't I just multiply the two prices?
Multiplying assumes independence. With a correlation of about 0.13, the true joint probability differs from the naive product, which is why the Autopsy simulates the pair 20,000 times instead.
Does the correlation hold across different games?
No. This relationship is driven by shared game state, so across separate games we treat the legs as independent.
Price this pair in the Autopsy →
https://blacklightparlays.app/correlation/favorite-spread-and-over · coefficient is an estimate, not a measured result